Section 1
Western Immigration of Canada
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By the mid-1870s Canada wanted an immigrant population of agricultural settlers established in the West. No urban centres existed on the prairies in the 1870s, and rural settlement was the focus of the federal government's attention. The western rural settlement was desired, as it would provide homesteads for the sons and daughters of eastern farmers, as eastern agricultural land filled to capacity. As well, eastern farmers and politicians viewed western Canada, with its broad expanses of unpopulated land, as a prime location for expanding Canada's agricultural output, especially in terms of wheat production to serve the markets of eastern Canada.
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To bolster Canada's population and agricultural output, the federal government took steps to secure western land. The Dominion of Canada purchased Rupert's Land from the Hudson's Bay Company in 1870. In 1872, the federal government enacted the Dominion Lands Act. This act enabled settlers to acquire 160 acres of free land, as long as settlers remained on their land for a period of three years, made certain minor improvements to the land, and paid a $10.00 registration fee. The Canadian government also created a Mounted Police Force in 1873. The Mounties journeyed west to secure the area for future settlers. By 1876 the NWMP had established themselves in the West. The major posts included Swan River, Fort Saskatchewan, Fort Calgary, Fort Walsh and Fort Macleod. All of these initiatives attracted a number of Eastern-Canadian settlers, as well as European and American immigrants, to Canada's West, and particularly to the area of Manitoba.
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The surest way to protect Canadian territory, and to achieve the secondary goal for joining British Columbia to the rest of the country, was to import large numbers of Eastern Canadian and British settlers. Settling the West also made imperative the building of a transcontinental railway. The railway would work to create an east-west economy, in which western Canada would feed the growing urban industrial population of the east, and in return become a market for eastern Canadian manufactured goods.
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Winnipeg became the metropolis of the West during this period. Winnipeg's growth before 1900 was the result of a combination of land speculation, growth of housing starts, and the federal government's solution in 1881 of Winnipeg as a major stop along the CPR. This decision culminated in a land boom between 1881 and 1883 which resulted in the transformation of hamlets like Portage la Prairie and Brandon into towns, and a large increase in Manitoba's population. Soon, Winnipeg stood at the junction of three transcontinental railway lines which employed thousands in rail yards. Winnipeg also became the major processor of agricultural products for the surrounding hinterland.
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The majority of settlers to Winnipeg, and the surrounding countryside, during this early period, were primarily Protestant English-speaking settlers from Ontario and the British Isles. These settlers established Winnipeg upon a British-Ontarian ethos which came to dominate the society's social, political, and economic spirit. This British-Ontarian ethnic homogeneity, however, did not last very long. Increasing numbers of foreign immigrants, especially from Austria-Hungary and Ukraine soon added a new ethnic element to the recent British, the older First Nation Métis, and Selkirk's settler population base. Settling the West with (in particular) Eastern Canadians and British immigrant offered the advantage of safeguarding the 49th parallel from the threat of American take-over, had not the Minnesota legislature passed a resolution which provided for the annexation of the Red River district. The Red River in 1870 was the most important settlement on the Canadian prairies. It contained 11,963 inhabitants of whom 9,700 were Métis and First Nations. But neighbouring Minnesota already had a population of over 100,000.
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Not all of the settlers who came to western Canada in the 1880s, however, desired to remain there. In the 1870s and 1880s, economic depression kept the value of Canada's staple exports low, which discouraged many from permanent settlement in the West. Countries including Brazil, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and the United States competed with Canada for immigrants. Many immigrants and thousands of Canadians chose to settle in the accessible and attractive American frontier. Canada before 1891 has been called "a huge demographic railway station" where thousands of men, women, and children were constantly going and coming, and where the number of departures invariably exceeded that of arrivals.
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By 1891 Eastern Canada had its share of both large urban centres and problems associated with city life. While the booming economic centres of Toronto and Montreal were complete with electricity and telephones in the cities' wealthiest areas by the turn of the century, slum conditions characterised the poorest areas like the district known as 'the Ward' in Toronto. Chickens and pigs ran through the streets; privy buckets spilled onto backyards and lanes creating cesspools in urban slums. These same social reformers believed that rural living, in stark contrast to urban, would lead to a healthy, moral, and charitable way of life. Social reformers praised the ability of fresh air, hard work, and open spaces for 'Canadianizing' immigrants. Agricultural pursuits were seen as especially fitting for attaining this 'moral' and family-oriented way of life, in opposition to the single male-dominated atmosphere of the cities. Certainly, agriculture played an important part in the Canadian economy in 1891. One-third of the workforce worked on farms.
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The Canadian government presented Canada's attractions to potential overseas migrants in several ways. The government offered free or cheap land to potential agriculturists. As well, the government established agents and/or agencies for the purpose of attracting emigrants overseas. Assisted passage schemes, bonuses and commissions to agents and settlers and pamphlets also attracted some immigrants to Canada. The most influential form of attracting others to Canada, however, remained the letters home written by emigrants already in Canada. Letters from trusted friends and family members. Letters home often contained exaggerations of the 'wonder of the new world.' Migrant workers and settlers already in Canada did not want to disappoint, or worry, their family and friends at home. Embellished tales of good fortune and happiness often succeeded in encouraging others to come.
Section 2
New Technology in New Zealand's Health Service
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At some time in their lives, nearly all New Zealanders will have to attend an after-hours clinic following an emergency or accident. On entering the consulting room, the patient is faced with a barrage of questions. The first ones relate to the current episode, and are followed by more general enquiries. Do you have any allergies? Are you on any medications? And so on. But imagine a different scenario. The patient walks into the consulting room and there on the healthcare professional's computer screen is his or her medical record in its entirety: allergies, medications, test results and everything else. To some, it's amazing that this isn't happening already. After all, individuals can track their bank accounts, phone records and countless other transactions online, so why can't they track their health? Ian McCrae, Orion Health's CEO, says that it's understandable if health often falls behind other sectors in its adoption of information technology (IT). It might be, he argues, because of concerns about patient privacy, but also because health care is just so complicated.
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The irony is, New Zealand started out being ahead of the game. The backbone of any health IT system is having a unique identifier for each patient, and New Zealand's national health index (NHI) number system was introduced in 1993, before most other countries in the world. Innovation then slowed for some years, but in 2011 the earthquake in Canterbury, which affected thousands of people, was a catalyst for health IT in that region of the country. Suddenly, many people couldn't be seen by their usual doctor and many health records were inaccessible. An existing plan for an electronic shared record was fast-tracked, and within six months a basic system, HealthOne, was up and running. By 2013, clinicians in the hospital emergency department were able to see all relevant medical information about patients. Dr. Nigel Millar, Chief Medical Officer for the Canterbury region, says within days doctors were telling him the information had already revolutionised the way they worked.
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This idea, known as a 'patient portal', is now in operation in other parts of the country, including the capital Wellington. With a mobile app patients can remain connected to their patient portal on their mobile device, allowing for added flexibility. However, there's a lot of complacency in medicine, according to Dr. Richard Medlicott. He says that innovative IT systems have the potential to radically change health care delivery, because they will free doctors from routine administrative tasks and instead allow them to focus on diagnosis and patient care, which is where their skills are really needed. But he admits there is some way to go in the adoption of shared care records, and also in changing the mindset of some doctors who are resistant to change. A good example of technology in use comes from Australia, where the National Home Doctor Service has brought back a service that was becoming infrequent: the home visit. The after hours service uses an app to arrange an on-call doctor who will visit patients at home to provide on-the-spot healthcare.
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A key part of the health IT picture is maintaining a dialogue and exchange of ideas between healthcare professionals, according to Kate Reid, a director at Orion Health. Reid says this is critical, but it's not easy because there are so many different agencies that are sometimes in competition. Another issue, Reid says, is that there are many information systems that are being trialled today. However, these trials are not big enough to determine if they could ever work at a national level. One area where cooperation in health IT really could deliver benefits is in disease prevention and early intervention, says Reid. 'We've got innovations and technology that could be reaching at-risk people right now.' she argues, but the infrastructure is not in place to allow funding to be shifted from treatment to prevention. Scott Arrol, CEO of New Zealand Health IT, says that advances are coming, they're just not arriving as fast as everybody would like.
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While IT is extremely important to a functioning health system, there are other areas where New Zealand technologies are improving health care. Dr. Hong Sheng Chiong, for example, has adapted a smartphone camera for medical use. The examination kit combines a phone adapter and app, allowing users to examine the eye with minimal training. Another innovation is the Clever MedKit, an intelligent first aid kit. It separates different items like band-aids and ice packs and orders replacements when necessary, making it particularly helpful in today's busy offices. In a separate field, the use of pre-made ceramic fittings which can be placed over a broken tooth in a single sitting reduces the cost of treatment. Dr. Adam Doudney came up with the idea before it was developed by researchers at the technology company Rhondium. Another idea is the Silhouette system, which offers a way to easily monitor wounds. It allows practitioners to detect small differences in wound size by collecting accurate images and data. Finally, the Auckland Bioengineering Institute is helping those wishing to keep fit or rehabilitate from injury. When placed on the body their special sensor moves with the wearer and measures the amount of movement, before the data is transmitted to the user's mobile or tablet. It'll be fascinating to see how these and other technologies transform medicine over the years to come.
Section 3
Game Theory
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According to game theory, our chances of success in negotiations are based on the choices of others. Computer models have been developed to work out how events will unfold as people and organizations act in what they perceive to be their own best interests. Numerical values are placed on the goals, motivations, and influence of players, and likely options are considered. Game theory software then evaluates the ability of each of those players to influence others, and hence predicts the course of events.
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Although many individuals would feel uncomfortable having a computer make decisions for them, many organizations run such computer simulations for law firms, companies, and governments. But feeding software with accurate data on all the players involved is especially tricky for political matters. Reinier van Oosten of Decide, a Dutch firm that models political negotiations, notes that predictions may become unreliable when people unexpectedly give in to 'non-rational' emotions such as hatred, rather than pursuing what is apparently in their best interests. However, sorting out people's motivations is much easier when making money is the main object. Accordingly, modeling behavior using game theory is proving especially useful when applied to economics.
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Using game theory software to model auctions can be very lucrative. Consulting firms are entering the market to help clients design profitable auctions, or to win them less expensively. In 2006, in the run-up to an online auction of radio-spectrum licenses by America's Federal Communications Commission, Dr Paul Milgrom, a consultant and Stanford University professor in the United States, customized his game theory software to assist a consortium of bidders. He was apprehensive at first, but the result was a triumph. When the auction began, Milgrom's software tracked competitors' bids to estimate their budgets for the 1,132 licenses on offer. Crucially, the software estimated the secret values bidders placed on specific licenses and determined that certain big licenses were being overvalued. Milgrom's clients were then directed to obtain a collection of smaller, less expensive licenses instead. Two of his clients paid about a third less than their competitors for an equivalent amount of spectrum, saving almost $1.2 billion. Such a saving makes one wonder why everyone isn't using game theory software. And, if they were, how would that affect the game?
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PA Consulting, a British firm, designs models for software based on game theory to help its clients solve specific problems in areas from pharmaceuticals to the production of television shows. British government agencies have asked PA Consulting to build models to test scenarios that address how many of a type of business should be allowed to operate in a particular area. A simple example: if two competing ice-cream sellers share a long beach, they will set up stalls back-to-back in the middle and stay put, explains Dr Stephen Black, a modeler for PA. Unfortunately for potential customers at the far ends of the beach, each seller prevents the other from relocating – no other spot would be closer to more people. Introduce a third seller, however, and the stifling equilibrium is broken as relocations and pricing changes energize the market. By studying a chain of events such as this, software designers can assess the effect of change and see the patterns in possible outcomes that may occur. As a result, the use of modeling makes clients more inclined to look at future repercussions when making business decisions, Black says.
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Where is all this heading? Alongside the increasingly elaborate modeling software, there are also efforts to develop software that can assist in negotiation and mediation. Two decades ago, Dr Clara Ponsati, a Spanish academic, came up with a clever idea. She accepted that, as negotiators everywhere know, the first side to disclose the maximum amount that it is willing to pay loses considerable bargaining power. Without leverage, it can be pushed backward in the bargaining process by a clever opponent. But if neither side reveals the concessions it is prepared to make, negotiations can become very slow or collapse. However, difficult negotiations can often be pushed along by neutral mediators, especially if they are entrusted with the secret bottom lines of all parties. Ponsati's idea was that if a human mediator was not trusted, affordable, or available, a computer could do the job instead. Negotiating parties would update the software with the confidential information on their bargaining positions after each round of talks. Once positions on both sides were no longer mutually exclusive, the software would be used to split the difference and propose an agreement. Ponsati, now head of the Institute of Economic Analysis at the Autonomous University of Barcelona in Spain, says such "mediation machines" could be employed to push negotiations forward by unlocking information that would otherwise be withheld from an opponent.
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Could mediation which has been achieved using software based on game theory spread from auction bids and utility pricing to resolving political and military disputes? Today's game theory software is not yet sufficiently advanced to mediate between warring countries. But one day opponents on the brink of war might be tempted to use it to exchange information without having to engage in conflict. According to some game theorists, opponents could learn how a war would turn out, skip the fighting, and strike a deal. Over-optimistic, perhaps – but game theorists do have rather an impressive track record when it comes to predicting the future.